What is Your Cardiovascular Disease Risk Profile

In an effort to understand the 10-year risk for both fatal and non-fatal cardiovascular events across the globe, in 2019 the World Health Organization published a region-specific predictive risk model based on almost 400,000 individuals (data from 1960-2013) aged 40-80 without a history of cardiovascular disease to ascertain how age, blood pressure, smoking, diabetes, gender, total cholesterol, and BMI impact an individual’s risk for a cardiovascular event (1). Enclosed below are the North American charts detailing that data. For reference, total cholesterol conversions are:

• <4 mmol/L = <155 mg/dL 
• 4-4.9 mmol/L = 155 mg/dL to 190 mg/dL 
• 5-5.9 mmol/L = 191 mg/dL to 228 mg/dL 
• 6-6.9 mmol/L = 229 mg/dL to 267 mg/dL 
• >=7 mmol/L = >=268 mg/dL 

There are no ethnic breakdowns given for the North American data, thus risk may vary based on ethnic origin. 

Examples from the charts include: 

Both smoking and diabetes increase risk 

• A 50-year-old female smoker without diabetes that has systolic blood pressure of 140-159 mmHg with a total cholesterol of 230 mg/dL has an 11% increased risk for cardiovascular disease 
• A 50-year-old female non-smoker with diabetes that has a systolic blood pressure of 140-159 mmHg with a total cholesterol of 230 mg/dL has an 11% increased risk for cardiovascular disease 

Increased BMI confers additional risk (unless that BMI comes mainly from muscle mass) 

• A 62-year-old male non-smoker without diabetes that has a systolic blood pressure of 140-159 mmHg with a total cholesterol of 180 mg/dL has a 13% increased risk for cardiovascular disease  
• A 62-year-old male non-smoker without diabetes that has a systolic blood pressure of 140-159 mmHg with a BMI of 30 has a 17% increased risk for cardiovascular disease 

Smoking, blood pressure, cholesterol, and BMI impact cardiovascular disease risk.  If you find yourself in a greater than 10% increased risk category, come consult our in-house nutritionist to see how dietary and lifestyle changes may help curb your risk. 

(1) PMID: 31488387